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According to the Construction Industry Research Board, home builders have began construction on 36,282 new homes in the first six months of 2008. This figure is significantly lower than housing starts in 2007, close to 44 percent lower. The amount of new condominiums and apartments fell roughly 22 percent, while new single-family homes declined almost 55 percent.
6,443 building permits were issued in June to California home builders, a decrease of close to 11 percent from May and down 44 percent from June of last year.
One area that was reported to have the most drastic decline in starts of single-family homes is in Riverside/San Bernardino. Only 3,473 permits were issued in 2008 for this region, a massive decrease from the 14,000 plus permits issued during the first half of 2007. Three years ago, single-family home permits in the Inland Empire exceeded 31,000.
The chief economist for the California Builder Industry Association – Alan Nevin, stated that the decline in single-family construction is greater in areas lacking large employment centers.
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According to a recent report by PMI Group, detailed by Steve Brown of the Dallas Morning News, home prices are unlikely to see a decrease in value over the next two years. PMI – a mortgage insurance company – ranked Dallas-Fort Worth as the lowest risk for declining home prices, out of all fifty states.
PMI’s risk factor report shows a close correlation between the markets that have seen the highest increase in home prices in recent years with the highest level of probability that the same markets will see the greatest decrease in home prices in the following years.
“Given the magnitude of the inventory overhang, we expect national home price declines to continue into at least 2009,” said PMI chief economist David Berson.
Berson also suggested that although Dallas-Fort Worth home prices should be encouraging, it doesn’t mean the area won’t experience short-term declines in value.
Four out of five cities that ranked on PMI’s report as having the lowest levels of risk, associated with home price declines, are located in Texas. The five worst cities include Riverside, California; Fort Lauderdale, Florida; West Palm Beach, Florida; Orlando, Florida; and Las Vegas, Nevada.
Click on the link to read the PMI US Market Risk Index.
Tags: California, dallas fort worth real estate, dallas morning news, dallas-fort worth, david berson, dfw, dfw home prices, florida, fort lauderdale, las vegas, orlando, pmi group, pmi us market risk index, riverside, steve brown, west palm beach