14 Jul 08 
Location Still Matters the Most
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“Price conditions vary tremendously, even within a locality, depending upon a neighborhood’s exposure to subprime loans,” said Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist. Yun also noted that while most markets are experiencing a significant reduction in contract signing from the previous year, others have seen a doubling in home sales.
The NAR is predicting a recovery in sales in the second half of the year based on the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The forward-looking indicator is derived from contracts signed in May, which decreased 4.7 percent to 84.7 from a revised reading of 88.9 in April. In May of 2007, the index stood 14 points higher at 98.5 percent, than in May 2008.
Yun warns that a sharp increase in pending home sales will likely have some pullback in the following month. Yun also stated, “The overall decline in contract signings suggests that we are not out of the woods by any means.”
Existing home sales are expected to grow from the second quarter figures annual pace of 5.01 million, to 5.75 million in the fourth quarter of the year, according to the NAR. The expected total existing home sales for all of 2008 is 5.31 million, and an increase of 5 percent, to 5.58 million, is expected for 2009.
New home sales nationwide are likely going to fall to 525,000 in 2008, a decrease of 32.3 percent from 2007, and decline to 507,000 in 2009, dropping another 3.4 percent. Housing starts are also expected to decrease 28.7 percent to 966,000 throughout 2008, and another 9 percent to 879,000 in 2009.
Tags: existing home sales, home sales, housing starts, lawrence yun, locality, NAR, national association of realtors, new home sales, pending home sales index, phsi, price conditions, subprime loans, yun
16 May 08 Las Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix Real Estate… Home Price Gains as Much as 50 Percent!
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, stated that Las Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix home prices could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next five years. During Yun’s speech, at the National Association of Realtor’s Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo yesterday, he further added that many cities, which have performed evenly for the past several years, are likely to see home price gains between 20 to 30 percent within five years.
Yun’s assessments are mainly derived from analyzing trends in subprime lending. The markets where significantly more subprime loans were issued are coincidently the same ones that have experienced the biggest downturns.
“While much of the media is focusing on the fact that the rate of foreclosures doubled this year from historic averages, the foreclosure rate has gone from one percent of all homeowner with mortgages to two percent. Foreclosures are being driven principally by subprime loans”, said Yun.
Personally, I think that these are rather bold predictions by Yun… however; his reasoning isn’t too farfetched. I guess time will tell…
Does anyone agree, or disagree, with Yun? I read about this on an NAR press release, click here to read the entire article.
Tags: las vegas real estate, lawrence yun, miami real estate, NAR, national association of realtors, national association of realtors midyear legislative me, phoenix real estate
