April Case Shiller Report Shows Gains, Raises Questions

April Case Shiller Report Shows Gains

April 2011 marked one of the first positive turns in national home prices, according to numbers released by the S&P Case-Shiller .

April 2011 marked one of the first positive turns in national home prices, according to numbers released this week by the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The report, which tracks home price trends in a select group of 10 cities—as well as a broader basket of 20 cities—is considered by some to be one of the most accurate reflections of the state of the housing market, both regionally and nationally.

The report showed modest month-over-month home price increases in both the 10- and 20-city composite indices, of 0.8 and 0.7 percent respectively. However, the price indices actually fell from the same month in 2010. Both the 10-city and 20-city composites are above levels seen during the post-housing bubble low set in March 2011.

While analysts welcomed the news of a month-over-month increase, many were hesitant about attributing the rise to a nascent real estate recovery, suggesting the rise could be the result of a solid but temporary boost thanks to the traditional summer selling season. Drilling down into the seasonally-adjusted numbers, the annual rate of home price change actually remained flat for the 10-city composite, at –3.1 percent, while the 20-city composite actually saw annual change rates drop to -4 percent from March’s –3.8 percent. Despite the positive turn, home prices continue to fall.

The regional nature of the housing recovery is evident in the metropolitan statistics, with Washington, D.C. once again the only metro showing price improvements, to the tune of 4 percent year-over-year. Minneapolis, Minnesota showed the strongest annual decline, with prices down 11 percent from April 2010.

Price declines in both the 10- and 20-city indices were –32.6 percent and –32.8 percent respectively, from the highs set in July 2006 down to April 2011’s numbers.

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