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It’s interesting to see how analysts look at the housing market for 2010. On one hand, they seem to believe that the worst of housing problems have already occurred and that we could start seeing some nice signs of improvement in 2010. On the other, they acknowledge that foreclosures are still continuing, home prices might not rebound all that well, and unemployment needs to turnaround if anything positive is going to occur and be sustainable. It’s “hope” against numbers and with national debt skyrocketing, there may not be much to help hope along.
Radar Logic, a real estate analytics company, came out with a report saying that the housing market could be in trouble for 2010, but that it shouldn’t see a major collapse in the year. They believe that home prices will increase, that bidding on foreclosed homes will help push prices up, and that the supply of new and existing homes will continue decreasing.
Unfortunately, this counters other information and realities that the housing market is dealing with right now. Yes, foreclosures are down, but homes are still being foreclosed upon. Home prices have steadied, but they still declined in November by .8%. True, the inventory of homes for sale fell, but some of that is artificial as many banks holding on to foreclosed property aren’t releasing all the homes at once for resale, trying to protect some of each home’s value.
Balance that with a prediction that other analysts are waiting for the big drop in the commercial real estate market, which could potentially affect 9 million jobs, more than 400 banks still in trouble financially because of bad loans, and commercial lenders starting to fail also, and it seems that there’s a lot more faith being employed than a true judge of what the numbers are showing.
Still, it could be said that the bottom is near and that recovery might be just around the corner. If unemployment improves, the commercial real estate market ends up okay, foreclosures continue declining and home prices continue inching up, by the end of 2010 we could be saying “remember when”. Unfortunately, data doesn’t leave me to believe that we’ll be saying good bye to the bad times in 2010.
Happy New Year!
See Also:
Real Estate Outlook 2010 – Realtor.org
Commercial Real Estate Defaults: 2010 – 2013 Will be Worst with $67 Billion “Lost” – Huffington Post
Foreclosure Forecast 2010 – NuWireInvestor.com
Mitch Mitchell is a consultant who writes and participates in many different fields, including real estate finance issues. 
I think 2010 will be better than the last couple of years, but we most definitely still have a long way to go before we have a truly sustainable recovery.
I would have to agree with Matt… I cannot see it being as bad as it’s been (how could it be?). I think that is what Radar Logic is getting at. Thanks for the post, as the year winds down its a great time to look at what has been and get ready for what is coming.
I work as an administrative assistant at a legal services firm that handles foreclosures for banks and other lenders and we’ve been very busy although it slowed down a little in December. I think the banks are a little public relations conscious and don’t want to be throwing people out of their home just before Christmas.
However, we’re also hiring a lot of people in anticipation of a wave of foreclosures during the first quarter of 2010. I agree that banks are holding back on foreclosures right now but this will almost certainly increase if our expected case load meets our forecast.
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It’s such a relief to see someone writing the truth. We DONT know whats going to happen in 2010 but so many people are caught up in their skeptical predictions about next year’s housing market.
St. Louis’s home sales actually increased 44% in November even if it IS a result of the tax credit, it’s still an improvement.
I found a blog on the facts of that soar in sales at http://www.fischerandfrichtel.com/blog/index.php/2009/12/st-louis-home-sales-jump-44-in-november/
I think the truth is that the housing market has to get better, but some of these seers are grabbing at straws and proclaiming the end is over, and it’s not yet. But I feel it’s close, and that things in general are better than last year at this time, even if it’s still going backwards in some places.
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